The Research team conducted research amongst the UK population about their thoughts about the likelihood and impact of Brexit and the influence of the House of Lords on the progress of the Brexit Bill. The results are not expected to be a prediction on what will actually happen, but an insight into the general public’s perception on what they might be preparing for based on their interpretation of events and communication taking place around it.
Triggering ‘Article 50’
– Despite assurances May will be triggering ‘Article 50’ before the end of March, approximately half the population (52% of the population) believe it will be either later or will never happen.
House of Lords
– The UK population on balance consider the House of Lords are right to vote to amend the Brexit Bill (47% in favour, compared to 34% against and the remainder didn’t know).
– Reiterating this, a greater proportion of the UK population were actually defending the House of Lords right to check and challenge the Government (61% supporting, just 25% against and the remainder didn’t know).
EU and UK Nationals – Rights of Residence
– On the main issue, approximately 6 in 10 believe EU nationals living in the UK should be given rights of residence and just as many think this should be reciprocated to UK nationals in the EU.
– 3 in 4 (74%) of ‘Leave the EU’ voters think EU nationals should ONLY be given rights IF this is also given to UK nationals in the EU; significantly higher than the UK general population (60%).
– Not surprisingly, ‘Baby boomers’ (those +50 yrs) want to have this condition for UK nationals in the EU agreed before extending it to EU nationals in the UK, +29% more so than the younger ‘Millennials’ (those 18 to 29 yrs).
Impact of ‘Article 50’ Within 12 Months (costs, jobs, value of £)
– There’s a perception by 6 in 10 across the UK that within 12 months of ‘Article 50’ being triggered, immigration from the EU to UK will decrease, but only at an average of -2% overall.
– Just over a third (35%) believe jobs in the private sector will decrease, 44% believe there will be no change and 21% actually believe there will be an increase.
– However, half believe there will be cost pressures in the first year with 52% considering the overall cost of living will increase but only at an average of 2.5%.
– The perceptions on costs and jobs highlight the perceived polarity of the impact from Pound Sterling value. 55% believe the £ will decrease against the US Dollar and particularly so by those who voted to ‘Remain in the EU’.
Coverage of these results was published in Bloomberg and Politico: